REIT history bodes well for outlook in current volatile market
Prices said to dip and climb before those of commercial property
Even though commercial- property values are decreasing, equity real estate investment trust prices will likely rise if historical trading trends are an indication, some industry observers predict.
"There's a tendency for people to think that if property values are going down and they own REIT stocks, then that means their REIT stocks will go down — and that, historically speaking, is not the case, because REITs lead the rest of the market," said Brad Case, an economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Washington. "Returns to REITs lead the returns to real properties."
Equity REIT share prices have tended to decline, trough and rebound a year or two ahead of commercial-property prices shown on the NCREIF Property Index, from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries in Chicago.
If this trend holds up during this cycle, equity REITs, which were up about 2% in the first eight months of 2008, should continue ticking up even though commercial-real-estate values will likely be falling, Mr. Case said. . . . more
Even though commercial- property values are decreasing, equity real estate investment trust prices will likely rise if historical trading trends are an indication, some industry observers predict.
"There's a tendency for people to think that if property values are going down and they own REIT stocks, then that means their REIT stocks will go down — and that, historically speaking, is not the case, because REITs lead the rest of the market," said Brad Case, an economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Washington. "Returns to REITs lead the returns to real properties."
Equity REIT share prices have tended to decline, trough and rebound a year or two ahead of commercial-property prices shown on the NCREIF Property Index, from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries in Chicago.
If this trend holds up during this cycle, equity REITs, which were up about 2% in the first eight months of 2008, should continue ticking up even though commercial-real-estate values will likely be falling, Mr. Case said. . . . more
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